World Series

[boxgames]

Game 1

Both bullpens are rested and quite similar in terms of ERA, WHIP, and K/BB ratio during RS and PO.
Gerrit Cole has delivered quality innings under pressure in 120 IP on PlayOffs, including 14 on the WS where he had a WHIP of 1.000 and 15 K's (vs 3 BBs). I expect Cole to pitch at least 5 quality innings tonight.

Jack Flaherty has 40 IP in Playoffs with a WHIP of 1.388 and a 2.43 K/BB ratio. He has a combined cWPA of -1.7% vs 34% from Cole.

Both teams have great batters, however, the Yankees are slightly better against RHP.

The edge in this game is in the starters, so my play is:

901 New York Yankees +105 for 1ST 5 INNINGS | G. Cole -R - Must Start / J. Flaherty -R - Must Start

I believe the teams in game 1 try to force as many pitches as possible to wear down the bullpen's stamina. That usually means more looking K's.
Expect this series to go wild but both teams have their better relievers rested for this game, so if there's a day to play under at a good price, that day is today.

902 New York Yankees/Los Angeles Dodgers under 8½ -107 for GAME | G. Cole -R - Must Start / J. Flaherty -R - Must Start

Some props based on matchups:

Anthony Rizzo (NYY) Over 0.5 Total bases -139
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) Under 1.5 Total bases -104
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) Under 0.5 Total bases +129
Gerrit Cole (NYY) 6+ Strikeouts +123

 

[boxgames]

Longshot for the series - think this play has great value. Hopefully, he's able to mimic Mariano in the '99 WS

MLB Futures - World Series MVP - World Series MVP (Others on request) - Luke Weaver +15000

 

[boxgames]

WS Record: 0-2 -200

Props: 1-3

Let's start with how the first Dodgers run came on: Soto's missed routine flyout was converted into a triple that eventually became the first run. Soto looked listless all night. The Yankees were not proficient at bat during the first five innings, but that bet should have been a push.

Bottom of the 8th, Soto again. How the heck you don't grab that ball?? Bad throw, and again. What should've been a flyout, turned into a triple and then into the tie run.

Top of the 10th inning a crime. Torres stupidly stopped during the base running. Wells stroke out looking with a fastball to the middle of the zone!! What kinda pitch are you waiting for to bat???? Come on!!

Yankees left a total of 11 on base.

Bottom of the 10th. Why not keep Weaver AKA your closer???? Cabrera should've done the DP and (almost) seal the deal!

Cortez (a low-end pitcher from this bullpen) comes in to face one of the most delicate situations of the season just because ???? he's lefty??? Ohtani and Freeman are switch batters and you walk Betts

Cole played well. He threw 61 strikes out of 88 pitches (for just 4 K's). He did a great job pretty much like most of the bullpen.

If you make mistakes at this point in the season, you will pay dearly.

Despite Yankees' errors, the Dodgers had to perform the 1st walkoff-gran slam ever in the WS.
So I don't regret my selections.

 

[boxgames]

903 New York Yankees +127 for GAME

Great price for a team that should receive a boost of confidence and adjustments by Aaron Boone.

Looking for Yankees to rebound tonight (if they're able to avoid mistakes).

 

[boxgames]

WS Record: 0-3 -300

Boone should've removed Rodon earlier. He wasn't pitching well. Yankees started to bat on top of the 9th. When is Judge gonna appear?

Dodgers are taking advantage of foe's mistakes. A 2-0 is a big and comfortable margin.

More on Monday.

 

[boxgames]

Both pitchers barely have faced the batters they will tonight.

Buehler's WHIP is 1.553 this season, but his cWPA is 34.5% in 88 IP in the postseason, including 18.8% in the WS. That tells me he's a confident pitcher under pressure.

Schmidt has an ERA of 2.85 and WHIP of 1.184 but barely has 11 IP in the postseason (-13% cWPA).

Dodgers will look to get advantage from Schmidt. Both bullpens had one extra day for resting, and I expect Boone to use it early in the game.

So, given that the total line is high and the under has a good price (mainly thanks to public betting on the over):

906 Los Angeles Dodgers/New York Yankees under 8½ +100 for GAME | W. Buehler -R - Must Start / C. Schmidt -R - Must Start

 

[G-Man!]

Good writeup.


FWIW
The only whip that matters is when the pitcher is healthy. Beuhler was injured most of the season.
Buehler has a 1.22 WHIP last three. All vs PLAYOFF teams. w/3.31 era

Schmidt -1.47 WHIP vs 2 playoff games and one regular season game. He hasn't pitched since OCT 17th vs bad hitters in Cle.

Last time Yankees had long stretch of days without a pitcher pitching, he gave up a grand slam. . Cortez hadnt pitched in 27 days.
Schmidt hasn't pitched in 11 days.

His real era is 5.02 last three starts. Not anywhere near the 2.85 you've posted. His numbers are misleading. The guy is nothing like his past season long era.

I think the Dodgers will explode on him especially with the short right field in NY.

BOTH starting pitchers last three starts have combined era's over 8. Thats why the total is 8.5.

Schmidts is even worse when you consider he pitched against teams that averaged under 5 runs per game last three.
His home era on the season is horrible at 4.50....
His last 2 home starts were worse, as he allowed 7 runs in 9 innings. w/era over 7.0 .

In addition - Yankees season record with games out of their division vs NL was only 23-23.
The Dodgers record was 30-16 vs AL ! And thats with Betts OUT for 2 months!

As far as pitchers facing batters...Buehler faced two great hitting teams with Mets and Padres.
Schmidt faced shit CLE and O's who faded as usual.

BOL today on the under! Hope Yanks get shut out and Dodgers win 6-0.

 

[boxgames]

Good writeup.


FWIW
The only whip that matters is when the pitcher is healthy. Beuhler was injured most of the season.
Buehler has a 1.22 WHIP last three. All vs PLAYOFF teams. w/3.31 era

Schmidt -1.47 WHIP vs 2 playoff games and one regular season game. He hasn't pitched since OCT 17th vs bad hitters in Cle.

Last time Yankees had long stretch of days without a pitcher pitching, he gave up a grand slam. . Cortez hadnt pitched in 27 days.
Schmidt hasn't pitched in 11 days.

His real era is 5.02 last three starts. Not anywhere near the 2.85 you've posted. His numbers are misleading. The guy is nothing like his past season long era.

I think the Dodgers will explode on him especially with the short right field in NY.

BOTH starting pitchers last three starts have combined era's over 8. Thats why the total is 8.5.

Schmidts is even worse when you consider he pitched against teams that averaged under 5 runs per game last three.
His home era on the season is horrible at 4.50....
His last 2 home starts were worse, as he allowed 7 runs in 9 innings. w/era over 7.0 .

In addition - Yankees season record with games out of their division vs NL was only 23-23.
The Dodgers record was 30-16 vs AL ! And thats with Betts OUT for 2 months!

As far as pitchers facing batters...Buehler faced two great hitting teams with Mets and Padres.
Schmidt faced shit CLE and O's who faded as usual.

BOL today on the under! Hope Yanks get shut out and Dodgers win 6-0.

Good spot — I didn't want to focus much on Schmidt because I expected early movement on bullpens (especially from the Yankees), and both bullpens are solid (13 total relievers were used trying to optimize matchups).

Buehler threw 5 quality innings while Schmidt didn't even finish the 3rd. I'm happy with the selection.


WS Record: 1-3 -200

 

[boxgames]

Desperate situation for the Yankees. They're almost done in the WS, but being swept by the Dodgers would be disappointing for the fans (or hilarious for the haters).

This is a must-win for them and while I'm not a big fan of laying teams in this situation, they'll assume risks and put all the pitchers needed in the game to make that happen.

Dodgers starter TBD. Wont affect much the line.

908 New York Yankees -142 for GAME

Props:

Aaron Judge (NYY) Under 0.5 Hits +152
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) Over 1.5 Total bases +134
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) Under 0.5 Hits +168
Juan Soto (NYY) Over 1.5 Total bases +129
Tommy Edman (LAD) Over 0.5 Total bases -143
Alex Verdugo (NYY) Over 0.5 Total bases -117

 

[boxgames]

Batting finally worked for the Yankees.

WS Record: 2-3 -100

Props: 4-6

Should've picked Freeman. Thought his streak wasn't gonna continue. I was wrong. The guy is nuts.

Judge finally decided to have a "decent" day at bat

 

[boxgames]

Same thoughts as in game 1. The difference tonight is that both bullpens are more tired, so starters are more important.
Yankees should've won G1, the Dodgers needed Freeman's miracle and some fielding mistakes to get it.

910 New York Yankees -142 for GAME | J. Flaherty -R - Must Start / G. Cole -R - Must Start

Props:

Looking for similar props as G1 with a few changes:

Gerrit Cole (NYY) Over 5.5 Strikeouts +124
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) Under 0.5 Hits +175
Max Muncy (LAD) Under 0.5 Hits -112
Anthony Volpe (NYY) Over 0.5 Total bases -149
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) Under 0.5 Hits +129
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 1+ Home runs +400
Tommy Edman (LAD) 1+ Home runs +900
Anthony Volpe (NYY) 1+ Home runs +700

 

[chauncy]

Same thoughts as in game 1. The difference tonight is that both bullpens are more tired, so starters are more important.
Yankees should've won G1, the Dodgers needed Freeman's miracle and some fielding mistakes to get it.

910 New York Yankees -142 for GAME | J. Flaherty -R - Must Start / G. Cole -R - Must Start

Props:

Looking for similar props as G1 with a few changes:

Gerrit Cole (NYY) Over 5.5 Strikeouts +124
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) Under 0.5 Hits +175
Max Muncy (LAD) Under 0.5 Hits -112
Anthony Volpe (NYY) Over 0.5 Total bases -149
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) Under 0.5 Hits +129
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 1+ Home runs +400
Tommy Edman (LAD) 1+ Home runs +900
Anthony Volpe (NYY) 1+ Home runs +700

Both bullpens are not tired. Dodgers used the bottom of the pen yesterday. All the playoff roster add ons.

Treinen, Kopech, vesia, banda, Graterol and brasier all didn't pitch yesterday. Those are all their top relievers.

 

[boxgames]

OMG, those fielding mistakes in the 5th inning gave the game away as well as in the G1.

Happy with my selections. Yankees should've won G1 and G5.

WS Record: 2-4 -242

Props 8-7

Home runs 0-3

 

[boxgames]

Both bullpens are not tired. Dodgers used the bottom of the pen yesterday. All the playoff roster add ons.

Treinen, Kopech, vesia, banda, Graterol and brasier all didn't pitch yesterday. Those are all their top relievers.

I said "more tired" not entirely tired. Everybody but Treinen and (barely) Vesia had pitched either Monday or Tuesday. There was no bullpen edge in this game so my read was correct.